Historical perspective on faith-based initiatives

My views on this subject have changed drastically now that my research has given me the appropriate historical perspective. Please join me in a moment of reverence for the first three inductees into my "Faith-based Initiative Hall of Fame":

Pope Urban II, genius behind the first crusade
The Spanish Inquisitors (a team award)
Judge Jonathan Corwin, magistrate in Salem during America's "Golden Age" of faith-based initiatives

Stay tuned as recent development on the American political front seem ripe to produce a fresh set of hall-of-famers.

From the "better late than never" file...

A Scottish town has decided to pardon alleged witches it executed in the "golden age" of faith-based initiatives. Other, more conservative boroughs have simply re-classified witches they killed as "heathens of interest".

Reminds one of the type of meticulous judicial process that led the Vatican to wait over 300 years to admit that, having a sound scientific basis, Galileo's heliocentricity was a pardonable form of heresy.

Downplaying the herd of elephants in the closet...

Dare I hope that the misplaced "hundreds of tons of high explosives" can compromise or abolish the wall of deceit built and actively maintained by W Incorporated? Although I shutter to think of the hundreds or thousands of people that will find themselves paying the price in terms of shrapnel wounds (and worse) for our incompetence , I take solice in the fact that from day one, the Iraqi Oil Ministry was well protected. Had we not ebraced this seemingly radical prioritization, gas prices might have soared to record levels by now. Oops!

I'm waiting with bated breath for a proclamation from the administration that the explosives were stolen by hoards of thankful Iraqis, hell-bent on blowing up statues, palaces and other vestiges of Saddam's reign of terror.

Maybe they're converting them into fireworks to celebrate the elections in January...

Naaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

The anti-Patriot act, a.k.a., the anti-Bush conspiracy

Although I'm loathe to spawn yet another conspiracy theory, a cursory analysis of recent news stories leaves me with no other credible alternative. I've listened eagerly to Bush's assertions that the economy is the best of our lifetime and getting better; however, I am absolutely dumbfounded and appalled that American consumers have conspired to derail Bush's sunshine-blowing exercise by continuing to lose confidence in what is obviously a healthy, robust economy.
The proportions of this conspiracy are staggering given the number of consumers in this doubting nation of ours. This thing smacks of the Evil One. When are we going begin acting on our patriotic duty, i.e., perform a Patriot Act, to follow suite with the administration and suspend disbelief? Only time will tell.

Are the pollsters as lost as we are?

I've repeated it in this blog: polling is what we do instead of thinking. As bizarre as it may sound given the maturity of polling methodology, Dick Morris asserts that the pollsters are on terra incognita given this election season's record voter registration and the likely concomitant increase in voter turnout. I think he makes a lot of sense.

My prediction: this will go down as the election that the pollsters blew.

My crystal ball…

I believe if W is polling over 50% on the first based on the
this average, he’ll win the election; I don’t think this will happen though.

Walk'n the walk...

vs. talk'n the talk.

You might be really suprised by the folks that have served (and those that haven't). Of particular interest of are the armchair media quaterbacks (see the end of the list).

They really are out of touch with reality!

Interesing summary of the world according to Bush supporters.

Read the whole kitandkabootle here.

We're through the looking glass here people...

From the "I admire your ability to utter this nonsense with a straight face" file:

"While Saddam Hussein had nothing to do with the actual attacks on America, Saddam Hussein's Iraq was a part of the Middle East that was festering and unstable ... was part of the circumstances that created the problem on September 11,"

Condoleezza Rice

The admission is fascinating. However, if the Middle East WAS festering and unstable, what shall we call it now, rotting and disintegrated? Seems like one could make a rather convincing argument that we too were "part of the circumstances that created the problem on September 11". W must be groaning in abject frustration that our military is overextended to the point we can't invade ourselves. Of course, there's more than one way to punish folks for not being on your side.

You say you want a revolution...

Looks like America's youth is getting political again without the aid of poor hygiene and hallucinogens. It’s gratifying to know that Georgie Boy is at least bringing part of the country together: college students who support Kerry!

I'm being repressed...

The following post has been cleaned up as I've ascribed the disappearance of the original to the invisible hand of automated censorship. I believe the offending term was one that describes the human posterior and begins with A. I’ve replaced all occurrences of this term with the word “cheese”.

Title: It’s the economy, dumbcheese!

I feel truly honored that W recently sought me out to avail himself of my scary therapeutic talents. The following is an excerpt from a totally apocryphal session I had with our nation’s leader earlier this week.

grpNiteroi: Very good Mr. President. I believe we’ve adequately addressed your “issues” with Saddam Hussein. He was a horrible man for embarrassing your family by staying in power. Let’s move on to word association.

W: Thanks. You’ve really helped me cleareate my mind and perspectify my problems.

grpNiteroi: Don’t mention it Mr. President. Please respond with the first thing that pops into your mind for each word or phrase that I say.

W: I’ll give it 110% focation!

grpNiteroi: four consecutive months of declining economic indicators

W: Recovery!

grpNiteroi: Pat Robertson

W: Friar

(Note: After intense analysis, I determined that W had munged the words “friend” and liar”.)

grpNiteroi: plan for withdrawl

W: Cupcakes!

(Note: After intense analysis, I was unable to determine the meaning of this response.)

grpNiteroi: Kerry

W: Liberal

grpNiteroi: Leahy

W: Cheesehole

grpNiteroi: Cheney

W: Dick

grpNiteroi: Our time’s up Mr. President. I couldn’t have said it better myself.

Herr Hilpert's Blög

Mr. Hilpert's new blog (recently relocated) from blogcity: http://whilpert.blogspot.com/

I am weary...

so will therefore not burden you today with too much analysis and/or commentary; rather, I will point you to some interesting tidbits and let you draw your own conclusions as to what is wearing me out these days:

Bush didn't think we'd have casualties in Iraq according to a person I consider a highly reliable whack job, Pat Robertson.

The elections in Iraq have never seemed further away.

Taking CARE of people in Iraq doesn't seem to be as rewarding as we might have hoped.

Usama is as elusive as ever. Wonder if President Bush has spent much time thinking about him lately.

Lastly, Arnold has inspired me to propose a "Freedom FROM Information Act".

Sleight of Mouth

Bush's latest assertion that he does NOT foresee a long-term American military presence in Iraq coupled with a surreptitious readjusting of expectations regarding the nature of the democracy that may (is likely?) to emerge there represents the type of well polished compound message that inspires "shock and awe" in the minds of we few who are inclined to dissect softball interviews.

Because I'm in an exceptionally good mood today, I'll tread lightly on the first message's prima facie absurdity. Bush has no idea how long our forces will be required to stay in Iraq and has spent an inordinate amount of time trying to paint Kerry as a "cut and run" artist for suggesting we consider how and when we might withdraw some fraction of the personnel currently "in country".

Taking a cue from Dennis Miller, I’ll also give the president “a pass” on the substance of the second part of the message. Most of us see the puppet government in Iraq as the house of cards built on quicksand that it is, as opposed to the bastion of democracy our administration has tried to spin into existence.

No -- today I will not quibble on the substance of the president’s message, the likely death of thousands of our finest notwithstanding. Today I choose to stand in awe of the president’s ability to smuggle this verbal container, laidened with a huge weapon of mass distortion, into the collective “port of entry” of the American psyche. Guess it’s not just our physical borders that are porous and vulnerable.

Finally, in the spirit of national unity that Bush promised but was unable to deliver, I’ll resist the temptation to add “fundamentalist Muslim democracy” to the lexicon of oxymorons to which this administration has so faithfully and consistently contributed.

Faith in numbers

Ever since I skipped most of my summer semester statistics class in college, I've been convinced that Mark Twain understated his classification of truth-tellers ("There are liers, damn liers and then there are statisticians."). For many months I've read with great interest the various election polls published by news networks and independent polling organizations, e.g., Rasmussen.

For the life of me I can't understand how these organizations are capable of publishing such wildly different results. The latest USAToday poll has Bush up by 8%! Rasmussen has the race at a literal dead heat with each candidate receiving a nod from 47% of those polled. I heard one pundit say that polling is what we do instead of thinking -- enough said.

I decided months ago that I would monitor Rasmussen in an effort to spot trends. I think this decision has served me well. Kerry trended upward after the Democratic convention and the first debate with Bush doing the same after his party's convention. Rasmussen provides additional insight by way of state-by-state polls that are updated regularly. Based on what I've chosen as my relative statistical standard, I call the race a dead heat that will only get "deader" as we get closer to the election.

In the final analysis, I think this statistical confusion favors Kerry (see previous post for details). We'll know if I'm right in 15 days.

Who's going to win the election?

I've held for some months now that we will head into election night with no reliable indication of who is going to win. I've also asserted for a considerable amount of time that John Kerry will win. I share below some of the rationale for my not having changed my mind -- yet.

In terms of the polls, pay attention to the incumbant's raw percentage.

Young voters are flying under the radar. In a close election, even a small percentage of uncounted voters can make a difference.

Record voter registration probably gives an advantage to Kerry. My belief is that Bush's traditional base of conservatives are more likely to have voted historically. I believe many of these new voters are young and, for various reasons [see above] are not being adequately represented in polls.

Howard Stern wants Kerry to win. As crazy as it seems, his audience could tip the balance in favor of the challenger.