Who's going to win the election?

I've held for some months now that we will head into election night with no reliable indication of who is going to win. I've also asserted for a considerable amount of time that John Kerry will win. I share below some of the rationale for my not having changed my mind -- yet.

In terms of the polls, pay attention to the incumbant's raw percentage.

Young voters are flying under the radar. In a close election, even a small percentage of uncounted voters can make a difference.

Record voter registration probably gives an advantage to Kerry. My belief is that Bush's traditional base of conservatives are more likely to have voted historically. I believe many of these new voters are young and, for various reasons [see above] are not being adequately represented in polls.

Howard Stern wants Kerry to win. As crazy as it seems, his audience could tip the balance in favor of the challenger.